“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts suggest that recent data pointing to another jump in weekly jobless claims shows that the economic recovery in the US is far weaker than many optimists are willing to acknowledge.

Economists’ expectations had been for another 430,000 initial claims but the figure came in significantly higher at 473,000.

“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts also pointed to the (PPI) Producer Prices Index which increased by 1.4% in January which showed that inflation is gaining a foothold in the US contrary to claims that deflation was and remains the chief threat to the recovery.

The firm is adamant that the rising price of oil and imported goods is likely to present the greatest challenge to Fed policymakers as 2010 progresses and the situation is unlikely to be helped by what the firm considers to be perfectly legitimate concerns over the credentials of the US dollar as a store of value.

“Sakura Financial Group“ believes that the US Federal Reserve, chaired by Ben Bernanke, is likely to find that the mixed economic data makes its decision on whether or not to begin tightening monetary policy more difficult. Unemployment is generally seen as the chief barrier to raising interest rates or the withdrawal of other stimulus from the economy and “Sakura Financial Group“ suggests that the Fed is likely to come down on the side of caution.

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Sources close to analysts at “Sakura Financial Group“ suggest that the inverse correlation between crude oil and the US dollar is beginning to unravel as signs emerge that the global economy is recovering.

Commodities that are priced in dollars including oil, copper and gold, usually drop in price when the dollar rallies but, recently, oil has begun to increase in price even as the dollar stages a brief recovery.

“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts are thought to believe that despite the US dollar’s current rally, the long-term outlook suggests that the downward trend for the world’s reserve currency remains in place and this will continue to have an impact on the oil price.

“Sakura Financial Group“ continues to advise clients to acquire stocks in oil producers/refiners as the recovery in emerging markets replaces demand that has been destroyed by the ongoing slowing economies of the developed world. The firm believes that demand will continue to gain pace when developed economies recover and this will eventually result in further pressure on current supplies.

“Sakura Financial Group“ said it expects the price of oil to retest the $100 a barrel mark before the end of 2010.

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“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts have told clients that they should base some of their investment decisions on future food and water shortages by buying into companies with exposure to agriculture and water treatment technologies.

The Asian-based broker apparently believes that the lack of water in large parts of China means that the water treatment industry in Asia stands to profit significantly in the years ahead.

“Sakura Financial Group“ also suggested that increasing tensions between China and the US over access to limited oil resources could, one day, spill over into military conflict and that the shrewd investor should consider plays using oil explorers and refiners in the Asian region and cited Thailand’s PTT Chemical as an excellent choice.

The “Sakura Financial Group“ analysts said that although the prospect of a military conflict between the US and China was seemingly remote at the moment, it was worth remembering that the US has instigated several protectionist measures which are detrimental to Chinese exporters and the Chinese are refusing to allow their currency to appreciate against the dollar which the US believes is unfair to its own exporters.

“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts point out that the US may feel painted into a corner as China is the second largest holder of US government bonds after Japan and potentially has the power to cause significant economic problems for America were it to sell these holdings.

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“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts suggest that recent data pointing to another jump in weekly jobless claims shows that the economic recovery in the US is far weaker than many optimists are willing to acknowledge.

Economists’ expectations had been for another 430,000 initial claims but the figure came in significantly higher at 473,000.

“Sakura Financial Group“ analysts also pointed to the (PPI) Producer Prices Index which increased by 1.4% in January which showed that inflation is gaining a foothold in the US contrary to claims that deflation was and remains the chief threat to the recovery.

The firm is adamant that the rising price of oil and imported goods is likely to present the greatest challenge to Fed policymakers as 2010 progresses and the situation is unlikely to be helped by what the firm considers to be perfectly legitimate concerns over the credentials of the US dollar as a store of value.

“Sakura Financial Group“ believes that the US Federal Reserve, chaired by Ben Bernanke, is likely to find that the mixed economic data makes its decision on whether or not to begin tightening monetary policy more difficult. Unemployment is generally seen as the chief barrier to raising interest rates or the withdrawal of other stimulus from the economy and “Sakura Financial Group“ suggests that the Fed is likely to come down on the side of caution.

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