Amber Associates have joined a growing number of economic analysts is their belief that the worst recession since the 1930s has created a reservoir of demand that will buoy the economy.

In a statement to shareholders this week, Amber Associates analysts stated that forecasts of 3 percent to 4 percent growth in coming quarters may be too low given pent-up consumer demand. Referring to previous periods of recession, Amber Associates pointed out that the economy has typically had a tendency to bounce back very quickly.

Amber Associates’s outlook contradicts the view popularized by Mohamed El-Erian at Pacific Investment Management Co. that elevated unemployment and record wealth destruction will keep growth at 2 percent or less for years. The divergence highlights the dilemma for policy makers, who must decide whether to maintain record fiscal and monetary stimulus or begin to pull back and prevent a surge in inflation, should growth accelerate.

Recently published retail figures indicate that consumers have yet to ramp up spending. The Commerce Department said purchases fell for the first time in three months, by 0.1 percent. A Labor Department report showed 558,000 Americans, more than forecast, filed claims for unemployment insurance last week; the U.S. has lost 6.7 million jobs in the recession that began in December 2007.

The New Normal theory predicts that the recession will leave unemployment, forecast to reach 10 percent for the first time since 1983 early next year, higher for years. A theory disputed by the Amber Associates analyst team.

Amber Associates counter the new normal hypothesis on the basis that we are not intrinsically compelled to accept high unemployment, highlighting the concerted efforts of the Fed to fight it, as well as recent data suggesting that the rate of unemployment rise is easing.

In the report, Amber Associates say they expect gross domestic product to jump by 3.6 percent in 2010 and 3.9 percent in 2011. Annual growth surpassed 3 percent only once so far this decade, in 2004, and has averaged just 2.2 percent. They cite the key driver for this growth as being home prices, since this will effect every other variable in the equation.

Home construction has subtracted from GDP growth for a record 14 straight quarters through June 2009. Consumer spending has also dropped in four of the past six quarters, and is down 2 percent from its peak in July-to-September 2007, the biggest retrenchment since 1980.

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Sony Ericsson who have been one of the hardest hit phone makers over the last year has appointed a new Head of the U.S division.

Sony Ericsson have name Bert Nordberg as their new head after some very disappointing results seeing them lose market share and a their of profitability freefall.

Insiders told Amber Associates of the appointed after hearing that current head Dick Komiyama is leaving the post at the end of the year.

It’s understood by Amber Associates that the main priority of the new head is to get back their lost market share. The past year has seen Sony Ericsson market share fall below 5 percent, Amber Associates is aware of rumors that if the new head doesn’tperform then the partnership between the two companies may end.

After his appointment Nordberg told Amber Associates that it his intention to get market share and to get the company back to profitability within the next 2 years. Nordberg aims to this by restructuring the company and to improve the current product range.

Nordberg also told Amber Associates that he believes the company doesn’tneed much to turn it around and was confident of reaching his targets.

Amber Associates Analyst feel that his remarks are naturally optimistic, as he has just been appointed. The reality of it is that he has a tough task on his hands. Sony Ericsson decline is the most out of all the mobile phone makers and has been severely hit in the economic downturn.

Amber Associates technology correspondent believes that a lot of this is down to them missing other opportunities in the market where the other manufactures hadn’t. If they can widen their product range and make their phones more appealing then they may turn things around. Next year will be a critical year for Sony Ericsson.

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The successful car ownership program Cash for Clunkers has been so successful in the U.S in raising car sales that congress has passed another $2 billion extension for the program to continue.

Amber Associates sources said that the program has helped optimism in the auto industry in America. The program has already had $1 billion thrown at it to generated car sales. The program success has help sell over two hundred thousand cars.

Amber Associates points out though that sales were still down 12 percent from July last year, however the auto industry did perform well this year overall.

Car owners in the U.S are entitled to receive a $4500 rebate if they upgrade their current car for a new one; the greener the car you change too the higher the rebate the customer is entitled to.

Sources explained to Amber Associates that the program’s success has enabled the car industry to achieve success in a short period of time and that an extension on the program may well help the industry to get back on its feet by the end of the year.

Amber Associates analysts feel that the Cash for Clunkers program has been a total success; if you look at car sales more efficient cars have out sold other types of cars. A spokes person for the U.S administration told Amber Associates that they were surprised at the response to the program and were very happy with the results. They expect Obama to quickly sign the extension to the program so the good success cans continue.

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More signs that the economy is recovering, Berkshire Hathaway posted its best quarter in over two years. The company that is owned by investor tycoon Warren Buffet saw its value increase as the stock market enjoys its bullish return.

Sources told Amber Associates that operating earnings in the second quarter are still low but they were happy that they could post a profit. Most of Berkshires losses have occurred from their economically sensitive sectors, never the less the signs are encouraging for the future.

The companies that Berkshire operates have taken hits just like everyone else in the economy, but Buffet sees this as a natural bypass of a downturn in the economy. Insiders told Amber Associates that the operating companies are looking long-term and are positioned to get through this downturn without compromising their long-term profitability.

Berkshire operates over 80 units, which provide, ice cream, apparel, energy, insurance, home improvements and more. Their broad range of investments reflect the whole of the economy and can be seen as a good indication as to how well the global economy is doing.

Much of the results came from derivatives; they had gains from the 4 main indexes of over $1.5 billion this quarter. Berkshire told Amber Associates that they expect earnings to still be volatile in the current climate.

Berkshire Hathaway is the largest shareholder of American Express, whose share price increased a whopping 70 percent this quarter. Berkshire also invested over $30 Billion in June in a various equities. This demonstrates to Amber Associates that the markets are now beginning to move again, we expect some strong activity in the markets now, with Berkshire leading the way, as it normally does.

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